Bharat Forecast System (BFS)

 

The key advancements and capabilities of India's new rain forecast system, the Bharat Forecast System (BFS), are:

 ·         Sharper and More Accurate Rain Alerts: The BFS is set to provide more fine-tuned and accurate rain forecasts.

 ·         Improved Spatial Resolution: The new system uses a model that breaks down the globe into gridded squares of 6-km sides, compared to the 12-km sides used previously, resulting in a four-fold improvement in resolution for analysis. India is now the only country providing operational weather forecasts at this 6 km by 6 km resolution.

 ·         Panchayat-Level Forecasts: The system allows for forecasts down to the panchayat level, or a few villages, whereas previously forecasts were typically given at the block level.

 ·         Enhanced Short- and Medium-Term Forecasts: The improvements are largely visible in the forecasts for three-day and seven-day lead times (short- and medium-term).

 ·         Improved Heavy Rainfall Event Warnings: The system has shown notable improvements in giving advance warning of heavy rainfall events.

 ·         Optimized Grid Structure for Tropics: It uses a new grid structure called the triangular-cubic octahedral which generates higher resolution over tropical regions than the poles, which is considered more important for forecasting purposes in India as weather in these regions is more volatile.

 ·         Advanced Computing and Models: The improvement is attributed to the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) significantly improving the existing weather forecast models and harnessing more powerful computing capabilities.

 ·         Developed and Tested: The BFS was developed by the IITM and has been tested since 2002.

·         However, the sources also indicate that the new system will not yet significantly improve forecasts of phenomena like sudden, severe thunderstorms. The plan to address this involves installing 34 Doppler Weather Radars in the coming year.