Iran’s Nuclear Countdown: A Flashpoint in Global Diplomacy

 

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 Iran’s Nuclear Countdown: A Flashpoint in Global Diplomacy

 In-Depth UPSC Current Affairs Blog by Suryavanshi IAS

 June 29, 2025

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🔍 Introduction: What’s the Issue?

On June 13, 2025, Israel launched targeted airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, followed by U.S. air raids. Their goal: to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

However, the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), issued a critical alert:

“Iran could resume enrichment of uranium in just a few months, or even sooner.”

This raises deep concerns over nuclear proliferation, regional conflict, and global energy security — all of which directly link to UPSC GS Paper II and III.

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⚛️ Understanding Uranium Enrichment – Why 60% is Dangerous

Uranium is enriched to increase the percentage of the isotope U-235, which is needed to produce nuclear energy or weapons.

Level	Use
<5%	Nuclear power generation (civilian use)
20%	Medical and research
60%	High-level enrichment (Iran’s current level)
90%+	Weapons-grade (nuclear bombs)

Iran currently possesses over 408.6 kg of 60% enriched uranium, which:

• Cannot yet be used for a bomb
• But, with further enrichment, can produce enough for 9+ nuclear weapons

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📉 What Was Attacked – and What Survived?

Israel and the U.S. claimed to have destroyed:

• Fordo (main enrichment site)
• Natanz and Isfahan facilities

But IAEA chief Rafael Grossi says:

“Some of it is still standing. We don't know where all the uranium is.”

📌 Problem:

• Iran denied IAEA access to inspect sites
• Refused to clarify if uranium stockpile was moved

This leads to a critical vacuum in global intelligence.

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🌍 Why This Matters Globally

🌋 1. Regional Instability in West Asia

• Iran may retaliate through proxies (like Hezbollah in Lebanon or Houthis in Yemen)
• Risk of a regional war involving Israel, Saudi Arabia, the U.S., and others
• Increased sectarian tensions (Sunni vs. Shia axis)

💰 2. Global Energy Disruption

• Iran controls access to the Strait of Hormuz (vital oil passage)
• Conflict can lead to:
• Oil price surge
• Shipping disruptions
• Global economic slowdown

🇮🇳 3. Direct Impact on India

• India imports ~85% of its oil needs
• Millions of Indian workers live in Gulf countries
• India also has strategic stakes like Chabahar Port in Iran

A war-like situation will:

• Affect oil prices and inflation in India
• Threaten Indian citizens in Gulf
• Hurt regional trade and diplomacy

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🇮🇳 India’s Strategic Dilemma

India balances three sensitive relationships:

Country	Interest
Iran	Energy security, Chabahar port, regional influence
Israel	Defence technology, counter-terrorism partnership
U.S.	Strategic ally (QUAD), trade, Indo-Pacific strategy

India must:

• Avoid taking sides
• Promote regional peace
• Continue diplomatic engagement with all parties
• Ensure energy and diaspora security

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⚖️ IAEA’s Role and International Framework

• The IAEA verifies nuclear activities of nations
• Iran is part of the NPT (Non-Proliferation Treaty)
• But its recent defiance undermines global nuclear governance

Iran's move to suspend cooperation with the IAEA:

• Violates global transparency norms
• Increases risk of unchecked enrichment

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📘 UPSC Relevance – Topics to Cover

Area	GS Paper
International diplomacy, NPT, IAEA, India’s foreign policy	GS II
Internal security, energy security, strategic interests	GS III
Nuclear ethics, right to self-defence vs global peace	GS IV (Ethics)
Essay – Peace, War, and Diplomacy	Essay Paper

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✍️ Mains Practice Questions

1. GS II – IR:
   Discuss the implications of Iran’s nuclear programme on regional and global geopolitics. How should India respond to safeguard its strategic interests?
2. GS III – Security:
   How does instability in the Persian Gulf impact India’s energy and economic security?
3. GS IV – Ethics in IR:
   Is pre-emptive military action justified to prevent nuclear proliferation? Analyse.

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🧠 Prelims Practice (MCQ)

Q. Which of the following statements are correct?

1. India is a member of the NPT.
2. Uranium enriched to 90% is considered weapons-grade.
3. The IAEA has binding powers to stop any nation from enriching uranium.

a) 1 and 2

b) 2 only

c) 2 and 3

d) All of the above

✅ Answer: (b)

(India is NOT a signatory to the NPT. IAEA does not have binding enforcement powers.)

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🧾 Conclusion: Why This Matters More Than Ever

The Iran nuclear crisis is not just about centrifuges and uranium — it is a test of global trust, diplomacy, and international order.

For UPSC aspirants, this is a live case study in:

• Global governance
• Foreign policy realism
• Ethical decision-making
• Strategic balancing by India

Stay informed. Think critically. Write analytically.