A Tectonic Shift in Thinking: Why India Needs to Build Seismic Resilience Now

By Suryavanshi IAS
For UPSC GS-I (Geography), GS-III (Disaster Management), and Essay Paper

🔔 Introduction

On July 10, 2025, at 9:04 AM, an earthquake of magnitude 4.4 shook Delhi — a moderate tremor, but a serious wake-up call. The epicentre, just 20 km southwest of the capital, was shallow (5 km depth), yet over 80% of buildings, especially those built before 2000, failed to meet seismic safety codes.

This tremor follows a series of destructive quakes across Asia — in Myanmar, Thailand (7.7), Tibet, and even distant Greece — highlighting a regionally active tectonic environment. As a densely populated, rapidly urbanising country on one of the world’s most tectonically active plates, India cannot afford complacency.

🌍 India’s Seismic Geography: Why Are We So Vulnerable?

🔹 The Plate Tectonics Behind the Risk

The Indian Plate is moving northward (4–5 cm/year) and colliding with the Eurasian Plate.
This collision is building pressure in the Himalayan belt, creating frequent earthquakes and raising the risk of a long-overdue "Great Himalayan Earthquake" (expected magnitude ≥ 8.0).

🔹 Seismic Zones in India (as per IS 1893:2016)

Zone	Risk Level	PGA (g)	Example Areas
Zone II	Low	0.10	Bengaluru, Chennai
Zone III	Moderate	0.16	Mumbai, Kolkata
Zone IV	High	0.24	Delhi, Srinagar
Zone V	Very High	≥ 0.36	NE states, Andaman, Kutch

🔍 Delhi lies in Zone IV, with fragile infrastructure and 5,000+ high-rises at risk.

🧱 Urbanisation + Poor Compliance = A Recipe for Disaster

❗ Why Delhi Is Especially at Risk

Old buildings (pre-2000): built without seismic considerations.
East Delhi: located on liquefaction-prone soil.
Rapid vertical growth: increasing risk from collapsing high-rises.
Lack of enforcement: Seismic Code IS 1893:2016 often ignored.

❗ Other High-Risk Regions

Northeast (Zone V): Manipur, Nagaland, Mizoram — affected by the Myanmar quake of March 2025.
Andaman & Nicobar: vulnerable to tsunamis due to subduction zone activity.
Guwahati: floodplain + soft soil = very high liquefaction risk.

🧠 Learning from History

Event	Year	Magnitude	Deaths	Key Lessons
Bhuj Earthquake	2001	7.7	20,000+	Inadequate retrofitting; soft soil risks
Nepal (Gorkha) Quake	2015	7.8	9,000+	Poor building quality & enforcement
Indian Ocean Tsunami	2004	9.1 (quake)	2.3 lakh	No early warning systems in place

🏗️ What Can Be Done?

✅ Retrofitting Infrastructure

Steel jacketing and shear walls in old buildings
Deep pile foundations in vulnerable areas

✅ Strengthening Regulations

Enforce IS 1893:2016 in all new constructions
Delhi Development Authority must audit all high-rises
Expand IndiaQuake App alerts to rural & high-risk zones

✅ Community Preparedness

Promote emergency kits, evacuation drills, and disaster education
Create community disaster response teams in places like Bhuj and Guwahati

✅ Invest in Seismic Resilience

Experts suggest ₹50,000 crore per year for retrofitting
Prioritise critical infrastructure: schools, hospitals, bridges, metros

🌐 Global Case Studies: Lessons to Emulate

Country	Good Practice	Outcome
Bangkok	Updated seismic codes, high-strength concrete (30–40 MPa)	Minimal damage in 2025 tremor
Japan	Base-isolated structures, rigorous drills	Survives frequent quakes with low damage
Myanmar	Lack of code enforcement	Higher casualties in 2025 Mandalay quake

🧭 Way Forward

Integrate seismic resilience into Smart Cities Mission
Conduct annual risk assessments of urban areas
Launch public awareness campaigns
Upgrade building codes periodically with scientific input
Mainstream disaster risk reduction in school curriculum

💬 Relevant UPSC Questions

🔷 Prelims (2014)

Which of the following is/are the possible consequences of building collapses during an earthquake?

Liquefaction

Shear failure

Ground shaking

Select the correct answer using the code below:
(a) 1 and 2 only
(b) 2 and 3 only
(c) 1 and 3 only
(d) 1, 2 and 3
✅Ans: (d)

🟢 Mains (GS-1, 2022)

Q. Why is India vulnerable to earthquakes? What measures are required to mitigate their impact?
✔️ Use examples like Bhuj, Nepal, and Delhi
✔️ Mention IS Codes, NDMA guidelines, retrofitting, awareness
✔️ Add technical terms: ductile detailing, PGA, base isolation
✔️ Include global case studies (Japan, Bangkok)

🧩 Essay Practice Topic

“Earthquakes don’t kill people — buildings do.”

✍️ Discuss how man-made negligence worsens natural disasters and what steps India must take.

🧠 In Summary

Earthquake risk in India is not a distant possibility — it is a daily danger. From Delhi’s fragile buildings to the seismic rumblings of the Northeast and the Andaman subduction zone, India must act. Retrofitting, enforcement, investment, and awareness are no longer options — they are imperatives.

A national dialogue must begin now, before the next tremor turns into a tragedy.

📘 UPSC Strategy Tip:
Always integrate data, case studies, and comparative analysis in your answers. Mention IS 1893:2016, NDMA, and real earthquake examples for value enrichment.

Suryavanshi IAS

Wednesday, July 16, 2025