🌍 Denmark’s EU Presidency, Ukraine, and the Shifting Global Order: An International Relations Perspective

 🌍 Denmark’s EU Presidency, Ukraine, and the Shifting Global Order: An International Relations Perspective

By Suryavanshi IAS | IR & World Affairs Series | July 2025

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🧭 Introduction: A New Phase in European Diplomacy

As Denmark assumes the EU Council Presidency (July–December 2025), it steps into a world in flux—with Western unity strained, Russia’s aggression deepening, and Ukraine’s EU aspirations caught in a complex web of diplomacy, security, and strategic interest.

In this volatile context, Danish PM Mette Frederiksen’s unequivocal backing of Ukraine's EU membership, alongside Ukrainian President Zelensky and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, sends a strong signal:

“Ukraine belongs in the EU. This is about Europe’s future.”

But what does this mean for global power structures, NATO-EU dynamics, and India’s strategic calculus?

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🌐 I. International Relations Angle: Rebalancing the Global Order

📌 1. Europe's Strategic Autonomy in the Post-Atlantic Era

• The U.S. under the Trump administration has halted key arms shipments to Ukraine—indicating a partial retreat from global commitments.
• The EU, led by nations like Denmark, is filling the vacuum by initiating an €800 billion continental rearmament program.

Implication:

Europe is no longer a passive economic bloc but is emerging as a self-reliant security actor, aligning with the IR theory of Neorealism—where power shifts dictate new security behaviours.

📌 2. Ukraine as a Civilisational Pivot State

• Ukraine is now a geostrategic pivot—not just between Russia and NATO, but between democracy and authoritarianism.
• Hungary’s veto reflects the fragile consensus within EU, echoing the internal contradictions of liberal institutionalism.

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🪖 II. Impact Assessment: Global Consequences of Denmark’s Leadership

🔍 A. European Union

• Denmark’s push for Ukraine’s inclusion strengthens Eastern European solidarity.
• But internal fault lines (Hungary, Slovakia) may cause institutional fatigue and enlargement paralysis.

🔍 B. Russia

• The strategy to weaken Russia via sanctions + isolation could further push Moscow toward China and Global South coalitions.
• It might also provoke more cyberattacks, energy weaponisation, or territorial offensives—risking escalation.

🔍 C. United States

• The diminished U.S. credibility in Europe may weaken NATO’s unified command and embolden China and Russia.
• However, if Trump returns in full power, expect a transactional, selective engagement model—reshaping alliances.

🔍 D. China

• The EU's increasing security focus may delay economic engagements like the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) with China.
• China may exploit Hungary's veto power to penetrate EU decision-making and create internal strategic divisions.

🔍 E. India

• India must watch closely as EU's transformation affects its trade, tech, and diplomacy.
• Opportunities to:
• Collaborate on defence innovation (like Denmark-Ukraine model)
• Enhance multilateral voice with EU on platforms like IMF, WTO, UNSC
• Carefully balance ties with both Russia and the EU, avoiding alignment traps.

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📚 Theoretical Lens: Applying International Relations Frameworks

Theory	Explanation
Neorealism	EU's militarisation is a response to anarchic global structure and U.S. unreliability.
Liberal Institutionalism	EU’s internal consensus crisis over Ukraine reveals limits of shared norms.
Constructivism	Ukraine's push for EU membership is based on shared democratic identity and values, not just power.

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🔖 Summary: Strategic Takeaways for UPSC

Factor	Impact
EU as Security Actor	Challenges NATO dependence, reorients global defence diplomacy
Ukraine’s EU Bid	Tests unity of Western institutions, redefines post-Cold War order
Russia’s Isolation	May drive it closer to China and BRICS+, challenging Western hegemony
US Global Withdrawal	Creates power vacuums, opens strategic space for India & EU cooperation
India’s Role	Opportunity for strategic autonomy, defence diplomacy, and multilateral leadership

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📝 Essay / Interview Insight

“Power vacuums do not last long in geopolitics. If Europe redefines itself, so must the world.”

This case provides material for:

• GS Paper II (International Relations, Regional groupings)
• PSIR Optional (EU integration, balance of power)
• Essay themes: Shifting world order, Strategic autonomy, Regional leadership in multipolarity

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🖋 Prepared by IR & Global Strategy Team, Suryavanshi IAS

🌍 For those who see diplomacy as strategy, and the world as a classroom.