India’s Foreign Policy in Flux: Navigating a Multipolar Minefield
Suryavanshi
IAS – Strategy Series for Viksit Bharat@2047 Aspirants
🧭 The
Context: A Shifting Global Landscape
India’s foreign policy is under strain,
if not outright crisis. From balancing the U.S.-China rivalry, managing neighbourhood
threats, and navigating the complexities of West Asian geopolitics,
India's traditional strategy of strategic autonomy is now under
question.
This moment in diplomacy may well define
whether India remains a reactive power, or emerges as a decisive pole
in global affairs by 2047.
🌍 Key
Flashpoints
1️⃣ India-Pakistan Conflict & China Nexus
- The short 2025 conflict exposed India's vulnerabilities in two-front
scenarios.
- China's increasing military-technological integration with
Pakistan (J-10C fighters, UAVs, radar systems) reflects a new strategic
alignment.
- Deterrence stability is
under threat as Pakistan's nuclear posture emboldened by China
destabilizes South Asia.
🧨 Fact: China holds ~410 nuclear warheads (SIPRI 2024), compared
to India’s ~164. With Pakistan’s ~170, the combined adversarial count is ~580
vs. India’s 164 — nearly 3.5x nuclear asymmetry.
2️⃣ West Asia: The Israel-Iran Dilemma
- India’s traditional policy of equidistance between Israel
and Iran is no longer sustainable.
- U.S.-led strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities (using GBU-57
bunker busters) bring the ‘N word’ – nuclear war – into real
discourse.
- With global powers picking sides, India risks strategic
irrelevance by staying neutral.
🛑 Iran was India’s second-largest oil supplier until 2019; trade has
drastically reduced due to U.S. sanctions. Simultaneously, Israel is a top
defence partner. Balancing both is no longer feasible.
3️⃣ U.S.-India Relations Under Trump 2.0
- The Trump administration’s MAGA doctrine has led to
increasing unpredictability in bilateral ties.
- The claim of brokering an Indo-Pak ceasefire (denied by
India but endorsed by Pakistan) undermines India’s diplomatic credibility.
- India’s refusal to reciprocate diplomatic overtures (e.g., ignoring
Trump’s G7 return invite) hints at a growing strategic discomfort.
⚠️ Challenges
to Indian Foreign Policy
|
Strategic Pillar |
Current Status |
Challenge |
|
Strategic Autonomy |
Increasingly difficult |
Multipolarity forcing choices |
|
Neighbourhood First |
Weakened by China-Pak axis |
Tactical encirclement |
|
Global South Leadership |
Symbolic, not strategic |
No dividends during conflict |
|
Soft Power |
Losing edge |
Hard power now dominates discourse |
💣 Hard Power
Rising: From Shangri-La to Taiwan
At the Shangri-La Dialogue (2025), the
U.S. openly positioned China as a hegemonic threat in Asia. India’s non-aligned
posture finds fewer takers in this hard-power environment where:
- Quad is becoming more militarized
- Indo-Pacific is turning into a contested theatre
- Taiwan is becoming a red line for U.S.-China war
India’s silence could be seen not as
diplomacy, but strategic hesitation.
🛡️ What India
Must Do: The Strategic Way Forward
1. Deep
Audit of Defence Preparedness
- Learn from UK's review: stockpile ammunition, establish cyber
& electromagnetic command, modernise AI-based warfare protocols.
- Invest in loitering munitions, drone jammers, &
satellite surveillance.
- Build long-duration war sustainability plans.
2. Recalibrate
West Asia Policy
- Reopen energy channels with Iran through regional mechanisms
(e.g., INSTC).
- Deepen strategic ties with UAE & Saudi Arabia to balance
ties with Israel.
- Use G20 presidency legacy to frame India as a voice of
peace in conflict zones.
3. Neighbourhood
Balancing Act
- Counter China-Pakistan nexus with:
- Accelerated infrastructure on the LAC
- Stronger naval posture in the Indian Ocean
- Deeper strategic investments in Nepal, Sri Lanka, Maldives
4. Invest
in Strategic Technology
- AI, cyber-warfare, quantum encryption, satellite-based ISR must
become cornerstones of India’s doctrine.
- Public-private synergy in defence startups, aligned with Make
in India and Defence Corridors.
🧠 GS Mains
Relevance
GS Paper II – International Relations
“India’s traditional non-aligned stance is
increasingly being tested in a multipolar world. Critically evaluate in the
context of emerging West Asian and Indo-Pacific geopolitics.”
GS Paper III – Internal Security
“Discuss the strategic implications of the
China-Pakistan military nexus on India’s preparedness for a two-front
conflict.”
📜 Conclusion:
Rewriting the Playbook for Viksit Bharat@2047
India must evolve from being a balancer
to becoming a strategic stabiliser. The global system is less tolerant
of neutrality and more driven by assertive partnerships.
With an assertive China, a divided West Asia,
and a transactional America, India’s diplomatic agility, military
preparedness, and economic resilience will decide if it becomes a pole
in a multipolar world — or just another player.
As the 'N word' resurfaces, and diplomacy
takes a back seat to deterrence, the only choice India has is to
recalibrate, rearm and reimagine.
🔰 By
Suryavanshi IAS – Nation First. Always.
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