Sudan’s Civil War: Economic Collapse, Humanitarian Disaster & Geopolitical Fallout

A UPSC-ready analysis of Africa’s fastest-growing crisis (2023–2025)

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Introduction

Sudan, once seen as a potential stabilising force in the Horn of Africa, has plunged into one of the world’s worst humanitarian and economic crises since the civil war began on April 15, 2023. The conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has pushed the country into:

• A 29% GDP contraction (2023–24)

• Historic levels of displacement (9.8 million people)

• Famine-like conditions for the first time in Sudan’s recorded history

For UPSC aspirants, Sudan is a high-probability topic given its links to West Asia–Africa geopolitics, India’s foreign policy, global food security, refugee crises, and international humanitarian law.

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1. Origins of the Conflict: Power, Paramilitaries & Parallel Militaries

Who is fighting?

• SAF: Led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan

• RSF: Paramilitary force led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (“Hemedti”)

Why are they fighting?

The conflict stems from:

1. A power struggle over who would dominate the post-Bashir political transition

2. Disagreement over integrating RSF into the national army

3. Struggles to retain control over:

   • Gold mines

   • Trade routes

   • Political influence

Ironically, both groups once cooperated:

• Overthrow of Omar al-Bashir (2019)

• Military coup of 2021

But competing ambitions turned former partners into adversaries.

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2. Geographic Fragmentation: Sudan Split Into Two Realities

Territorial control as of late 2025

• SAF holds

  • Eastern and central Sudan

  • Port Sudan

  • Parts of Khartoum

• RSF holds

  • Most of Darfur

  • Large areas of Kordofan

  • Expanding into oil-rich zones

Strategic significance:

• Control of Darfur + Kordofan gives RSF leverage over:

  • Mineral wealth

  • Access to Libya & Chad

  • Local militias

Fall of El Fasher — A Turning Point

• El Fasher was the last SAF stronghold in Darfur

• After an 18-month siege, it fell in mid-2025

• Over 400 incidents of violence against civilians recorded

• 1,400+ killed in the region during the siege

This accelerated Sudan’s descent into humanitarian collapse.

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3. Humanitarian Catastrophe: One of the Worst in the World Today

Deaths & displacement

• 50,000+ deaths reported (likely far higher)

• 9.8 million displaced → largest displacement crisis anywhere in the world

• Majority now live in:

  • Makeshift camps

  • Host communities

  • Across borders (Chad, South Sudan, Egypt)

Targeting of civilians

Aerial strikes, child casualties, and attacks on hospitals (e.g., Kalogi drone strike) reveal violations of:

• Geneva Conventions

• International humanitarian law

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4. Economic Collapse: The Sharpest Contraction in Sudan’s Modern History

Sudan’s economy was already fragile due to:

• Loss of South Sudan oil (2011)

• Currency instability

• Sanctions

• Corruption

But the war triggered a free fall:

• GDP shrank 29% in 2023–24

• Infrastructure destroyed

• Agricultural cycle disrupted

• Markets fragmented into SAF vs RSF zones

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5. Food Insecurity & Famine: The Worst Indicators So Far

Skyrocketing food prices

• Sorghum in Kadugli:

  • Stable for 20 years

  • Now 10× more expensive ($40 for 3kg)

• Millet in El Fasher:

  • 3.5 kg costs over $500 in 2025

This reflects:

• Market blockades

• Loss of agricultural labour

• Import disruptions

• RSF siege tactics

Famine declaration (2025)

• Sudan entered famine conditions in September 2025

• 1% of population at “Catastrophe” level (IPC Phase 5)

• “Minimal food security” dropped from 47% (2022) → 24% (2025)

• Crisis-level insecurity rose to 31%

Sudan now faces a near-total food system collapse.

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6. Why Sudan Matters: International & UPSC Relevance

1. India’s relations with Africa

• Diaspora safety

• Energy security (Sudan/South Sudan oil)

• UN peacekeeping roles

2. Red Sea & Gulf geopolitics

• Sudan borders the Red Sea, a major global shipping route

• Instability affects:

  • Suez Canal traffic

  • Indian Ocean maritime security

3. Regional instability

Spillover into:

• Chad

• South Sudan

• Eritrea

• Ethiopia (already in conflict)

4. Global food security

Sudan is part of the Sahel, already facing climate-linked hunger crises.

5. Rise of non-state actors

RSF’s consolidation and foreign support (alleged UAE funding, Wagner links) affect global security architecture.

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7. What the International Community Has Done (and Failed to Do)

Peace attempts

• IGAD mediation

• African Union initiatives

• United Nations appeals

• Talks in Jeddah (Saudi Arabia–US) → repeatedly collapsed

Why they fail

• Neither SAF nor RSF wants to negotiate

• External actors giving tacit or covert support

• Fragmentation of militias

• Weak state institutions

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8. Pathways to Resolution: What Experts Suggest

UPSC aspirants should know these policy recommendations:

Short-term

• Safe humanitarian corridors

• Ceasefire monitoring

• Air bridge for medical supplies

• Protection of civilians under UN mandate

Medium-term

• Integration and demobilisation of RSF

• Rebuilding professional military

• Neutral transitional government

Long-term

• Constitutional reform

• Decentralisation to reduce regional marginalisation

• Economic stabilisation through donor intervention

Sudan’s recovery could take a decade or more.

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Conclusion

Sudan’s civil war represents a dangerous mix of power politics, state collapse, ethnic violence, economic free-fall, and famine. With nearly 10 million displaced and food prices skyrocketing, the conflict is shaping into the worst humanitarian emergency of the decade.