How India and Canada Mended Their Frayed Ties

The arrival of Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney in India marks a diplomatic reset that would have seemed impossible a year ago. After a turbulent phase under Justin Trudeau, India–Canada relations have moved from confrontation to cautious cooperation.

This development is highly relevant for GS Paper II (International Relations) and current affairs analysis.

💥 The 2023 Diplomatic Crisis

In September 2023, Trudeau alleged in the Canadian Parliament that Indian agents may have been linked to the killing of Khalistani separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in British Columbia.

India strongly rejected the allegation as “absurd and motivated.”

Escalation Included:

Expulsion of diplomats
Withdrawal of High Commissioners
Closure of consular services
Visa restrictions

India also accused Canada of being a “safe haven” for extremists.

This was one of the most serious diplomatic crises between two democratic partners.

Timeline (Key events, 2023 → Feb 2026)

18 June 2023 — Assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar

Hardeep Singh Nijjar (a Canada-based Khalistani activist) was shot dead in Surrey, British Columbia. This killing later became the trigger for a major diplomatic crisis between Ottawa and New Delhi. Hardeep Singh Nijjar.

19–29 September — October 2023 — Trudeau’s allegation and rapid diplomatic escalation

Then-Prime Minister **Justin Trudeau publicly said Canadian authorities had “information” potentially linking agents of another state to Nijjar’s killing (Sept 2023). That allegation provoked strong Indian rebuttals and led to expulsions/withdrawals of diplomats, closure/curtailment of some consular services, and very tense bilateral communications through late 2023.

Oct 2023 – 2024 — Prolonged diplomatic freeze and investigations

Diplomatic staff were reduced/expelled (Canada said it withdrew dozens of diplomats in Oct 2023), and investigations and public exchanges continued through 2024 with periodic public statements from police/intelligence bodies on criminal probes. (Reporting summarized the expulsions and withdrawals.)

Jan–Jun 2025 — Political change in Ottawa and initial thaw

Justin Trudeau announced stepping down (early 2025) → Mark Carney became Canada’s PM and made rapprochement a priority. Carney invited PM Narendra Modi to the G7 outreach summit (Kananaskis) and their June 2025 meeting began calibrated steps to restore diplomatic functioning (reinstating envoys, resuming some visits).

Nov 2025 — Formal relaunch of CEPA negotiations (political-economic reset underway)

Leaders agreed to formally relaunch / advance Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) negotiations — signalling an intent to deepen trade ties and delink broader diplomacy from the Nijjar forensic/legal process. (Canada/India government trade pages confirm resumption and negotiation rounds late 2025.)

6–7 February 2026 — NSA Ajit Doval’s visit to Ottawa; security workplan

India’s National Security Adviser Ajit Doval visited Canada; both sides agreed a joint security, law-enforcement and information-sharing workplan (liaison officers, shared priorities on transnational crime, fentanyl precursors, cyber). This institutional rebuilding was an important practical step ahead of the prime-ministerial visit.

Late Feb 2026 — Canada says India “no longer linked” to violent crimes; PM Carney visits India (27 Feb 2026 onward)

Ahead of his India trip, Canadian officials signalled they no longer believed India was currently linked to violent crimes on Canadian soil; PM Carney landed in Mumbai (Feb 27, 2026) and visited New Delhi to reinforce trade, energy, education and security cooperation — an emphatic diplomatic reset.

🔄 The Turning Point (2025)

The reset began after Trudeau stepped down and Mark Carney took office in early 2025.

Carney:

Treated the Nijjar case as a law-enforcement issue
Delinked it from broader political and economic ties
Invited PM Narendra Modi to the G7 Outreach Summit in Canada (June 2025)

Following a “positive” meeting:

✔ High Commissioners reinstated

✔ Visa services resumed

✔ NSA-level dialogue revived

✔ Separate mechanism created for “transnational crimes”

The two sides effectively firewall-ed the Nijjar investigation from overall bilateral ties.

🏛️ Institutional Mechanisms Revived

Security Dialogue

Joint Working Group on Counter-Terrorism (since 1997)
Framework on Countering Terrorism & Violent Extremism (2018)
NSA-level engagement between Ajit Doval and Canadian counterparts

This is critical because the core tension revolves around Khalistani separatist activity in Canada.

💰 Trade & Economic Pillar

India and Canada agreed to launch negotiations for a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA).

Trade Snapshot (2024):

Bilateral trade: $30.8 billion
Target: $70 billion by 2030

India Exports:

Pharmaceuticals
Machinery
Iron & steel
Electronics
Textiles
Seafood

India Imports:

Pulses
Potash fertilizers
Critical minerals

Canada is India’s 17th largest FDI investor (≈ $4.18 billion cumulative).

⚡ Energy Cooperation

With Canada’s vast natural resources and India’s rising energy demand, cooperation includes:

Oil & LNG
Critical minerals
Clean energy
Nuclear collaboration

Energy security is a major driver of renewed engagement.

🎓 Education & People-to-People Ties

Canada hosts the largest number of Indian students abroad.

3.92 lakh Indian students (as of Dec 2024)
Education remains a stabilising factor in bilateral ties

With over 1.8 million Indo-Canadians, the diaspora forms a powerful bridge.

However, a small but vocal pro-Khalistan minority has influenced political narratives in certain constituencies (e.g., Brampton, Surrey, Vancouver).

🌍 Geopolitical Importance

Canada is a member of:

G7
Five Eyes

These groupings include India’s key strategic partners like the US, UK, Australia, and Japan.

In 2025, India, Canada, and Australia launched a trilateral technology and innovation partnership, focusing on:

Critical technologies
Supply chain resilience
Emerging sectors

This aligns with India’s Indo-Pacific strategy.

🧠 Why the Reset Matters Now

With Donald Trump reshaping global trade policies, both India and Canada need diversified partnerships.

The reset reflects:

Strategic pragmatism
Separation of law enforcement from diplomacy
Recognition of mutual economic interests

Impact analysis — sector-wise

1) Trade & Economy

Immediate impact

Diplomatic freeze slowed high-level commercial talks and investor confidence (temporary).
Current trajectory

Reset reopened CEPA negotiations and renewed push to scale trade (goals range from doubling trade to $50–70bn by 2030 in various government/press statements).
Why it matters for UPSC

Demonstrates how geopolitics influences trade architecture and FTAs; CEPA negotiations will be asked in Mains under trade policy / external sector.

2) Security & Law Enforcement

Immediate impact

Mutual recriminations and reduced operational contacts raised counter-terror and law-enforcement frictions.
Recovery / institutionalisation

NSA-level talks (Feb 2026) and agreed security workplan (liaison officers, data sharing on fentanyl, cyber) restore practical cooperation — a shift from politicised confrontation to technocratic engagement.
Why it matters

Case study for GS-II: diaspora politics, transnational crime, firewalling judicial/investigative processes from diplomacy.

3) Diaspora & Domestic Politics

Immediate impact

The Nijjar episode politicised the Sikh diaspora in Canada; domestic Canadian politics (constituencies like Brampton, Surrey) amplified the bilateral strain.
Longer run

Reset reduces diplomatic weaponisation of diaspora issues but political sensitivities at provincial/constituency levels remain — watch for political narratives during Canadian domestic cycles (impact on bilateral people-to-people).
Why it matters

Strong fodder for essays on diaspora diplomacy, federalism, domestic politics influencing foreign policy.

4) Education & Migration

Immediate impact

Ties kept student flows and institutional linkages in focus (India is a major source of international students to Canada). Different datasets show ~3.9–4.3 lakh Indians studying in Canada in 2024 (government/press figures vary by source).
Trends to watch

Policy tightening in Canada in 2025–26 (caps/limits on new permits) has already reduced new admissions; that interacts with bilateral goodwill but is driven by domestic Canadian priorities (housing, labour).
Why it matters

Questions on migration policy, brain-drain, and international education are frequent in mains/ethics.

5) Geopolitics & Multilateral Linkages

Immediate impact

Reset makes Canada a more dependable partner for India within G7 / Quad-adjacent conversations and trilaterals (e.g., Canada-India-Australia tech pact).
Strategic significance

With US policy volatility (trade or security), India diversifies partners; Canada’s inclusion strengthens supply-chain, critical minerals and clean-energy collaboration.

Quick exam-ready takeaways (1-line answers)

Why did ties break? → Allegations (Sept 2023) linking Indian agents to Nijjar’s killing led to a rare diplomatic rupture and expulsions.

How were ties mended? → Political change in Ottawa, leader-level outreach (Carney–Modi), delinking legal investigations from trade/diplomacy, NSA-level institutional rebuilding (liaison officers, workplan).

Main consequence to watch? → Pace and outcome of CEPA negotiations (trade impact) and durability of security cooperation mechanisms.

📚 UPSC Relevance

GS Paper II

Bilateral relations
Diaspora diplomacy
Counter-terrorism cooperation
G7 & Five Eyes geopolitics

Possible Mains Question

“India–Canada relations demonstrate how strategic pragmatism can overcome diplomatic crises. Discuss.”

🎯 Mains Conclusion

The India–Canada reset illustrates the resilience of mature democracies. By institutionalising dialogue, firewalling sensitive investigations, and prioritising shared economic and strategic interests, both countries have moved beyond recrimination toward constructive engagement. In an era of shifting global power equations, such calibrated diplomacy is essential for safeguarding national interests while preserving long-term partnerships.

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