Project Vault, FORGE & Pax Silica
UPSC 2026 | GS-II (International Relations) | GS-III (Economy & S&T)
Recent U.S. initiatives — Project Vault, FORGE, and Pax Silica — signal a strategic shift in global critical minerals and technology geopolitics.
For UPSC aspirants, this topic intersects:
✅ Critical minerals security
✅ Supply chain resilience
✅ Industrial policy
✅ India–U.S. relations
✅ AI & semiconductor ecosystems
๐️ 1. What is Project Vault?
A U.S.-led public–private partnership (PPP) designed to create a:
๐น Strategic domestic reserve of critical minerals
๐ฐ Financial Backing:
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$10 billion → Export-Import Bank of the U.S. (EXIM)
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$2 billion → Private sector funds
๐ฏ Objectives:
✔ Stockpiling 60 critical minerals
✔ Reducing dependence on foreign-controlled supply chains
✔ Protecting civilian industries from disruptions
⚙️ Mechanism:
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EXIM provides long-term loans
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Funds used to purchase & store minerals
-
Withdrawal is governed by predefined disruption conditions
⛽ 2. Historical Parallel
Similar to:
๐ Strategic Petroleum Reserve (1975)
→ Created after 1973 Arab oil embargo
๐ Now applied to critical minerals
๐ 3. Why This Move?
⚠️ (a) China’s Dominance
China controls key stages:
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Mining
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Processing
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Magnet manufacturing (rare earths)
๐ (b) Supply Chain Shock Example
China’s restrictions on:
❌ Rare earth magnets
Resulted in:
-
Global automotive disruptions
-
Manufacturing vulnerability exposure
๐ง Key Insight:
๐ Critical minerals = Strategic assets, not mere commodities
๐️ 4. Strategic Doctrine Shift
Project Vault reflects:
✅ Whole-of-government approach
✅ Economic security = National security
✅ Resource geopolitics
๐ค 5. Allied Dimension – FORGE
๐ FORGE
Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement
๐ฏ Purpose:
✔ Coordinate critical minerals policy
✔ Develop pricing frameworks
✔ Promote resilient supply chains
๐ Participation:
-
Hosted 54 countries
-
Signals plurilateral cooperation
๐ก Focus Areas:
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Investment coordination
-
Market transparency
-
Price floor mechanisms
๐ฒ 6. Border-Adjusted Price Mechanisms
U.S. signed 11 bilateral agreements with:
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Japan
-
EU
-
Mexico
-
UK (etc.)
๐ฏ Aim:
✔ Stabilise mineral prices
✔ Support non-Chinese producers
✔ Prevent price undercutting
๐ค 7. Pax Silica Initiative
๐ฏ Launched: December 2025
Focus:
๐ Energy
⛏️ Critical minerals
๐ป Semiconductors
๐ค AI supply chains
๐ Members Include:
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Australia
-
Israel
-
Japan
-
Republic of Korea
-
UK
-
UAE
-
Singapore
-
Qatar
๐ India invited as a full member
๐น Objectives:
✔ Secure AI infrastructure
✔ Align regulatory standards
✔ Combine capital + resources + knowledge
⚖️ 8. Key Analytical Debate
๐บ๐ธ “America First” vs Cooperation
Concerns:
❌ Hierarchical partnerships
❌ Policy unpredictability
❌ Coercive trade negotiations
๐งฉ Challenge:
Supply chain coalitions require:
✅ Predictability
✅ Trust
✅ Stability
๐ฎ๐ณ 9. Why This Matters for India
✅ 1. Critical Minerals Access
India needs minerals for:
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Renewable energy
-
EVs
-
Defence tech
-
Semiconductors
✅ 2. Strategic Opportunity
Participation may offer:
✔ Investment inflows
✔ Technology partnerships
✔ Diversified supply sources
✅ 3. Geopolitical Balancing
India must balance:
-
Strategic autonomy
-
Partnerships with the U.S.
-
Relations with the Global South
๐ง UPSC Prelims Pointers
✔ Project Vault → Strategic mineral reserve
✔ EXIM role → Financing & loans
✔ FORGE → Plurilateral minerals forum
✔ Pax Silica → AI–minerals–semiconductor coalition
✔ China factor → Supply chain concentration
✍️ UPSC Mains Question Angles
GS-II (IR):
“Discuss the geopolitical implications of critical minerals diplomacy in the 21st century.”
GS-III (Economy/S&T):
“Evaluate the role of strategic reserves in ensuring economic security.”
Essay Themes:
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Resource geopolitics
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Supply chain resilience
-
Technology & power
๐ Key Takeaway for Aspirants
We are witnessing:
✅ Weaponisation of supply chains
✅ Rise of mineral geopolitics
✅ Economic security strategies
✅ AI-linked resource competition
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