How are geopolitical shifts and national policies impacting international refugee resettlement efforts?

Geopolitical shifts and national policies are significantly impacting international refugee resettlement efforts, leading to a complex and challenging environment for those seeking new homes.

Here's how these factors are playing a role:

•Impact of Geopolitical Shifts:

◦Decreased Resettlement Needs (Partially due to Syria): The estimated number of refugees needing resettlement in 2026 is 2.5 million, a slight decrease from the estimated 2.9 million in the current year. This reduction is "mainly due to the changed situation in Syria, which has allowed for voluntary returns". Some individuals are pulling out of resettlement processes in favor of plans to go home to rebuild. This change is also reflected in the overall number of forcibly displaced people worldwide, which dropped from a record 123.2 million at the end of 2024 to 122.1 million by the end of April this year, as Syrians began returning home.

◦Major Refugee Populations: Despite some returns, Afghans, Syrians, South Sudanese, Rohingya from Myanmar, and Congolese are still expected to be the largest refugee populations in need of resettlement in 2026.

◦Major Host Countries: Most refugees will continue to need resettlement from major host countries such as Iran, Turkey, Pakistan, Ethiopia, and Uganda.

•Impact of National Policies:

◦Shrinking Resettlement Access: The UN notes that access to resettlement is shrinking, particularly in the United States and other nations.

◦Lowest Quotas in Two Decades: Resettlement quotas for 2025 are expected to be the lowest in two decades, even falling below levels seen during the COVID-19 pandemic when many countries paused their programs.

◦United States Policy Shift: The decline in resettlement is partly linked to the United States, which has historically been the world's biggest resettler of refugees. President Donald Trump halted the US refugee resettlement program shortly after returning to the White House in January. This contrasts with his predecessor, Joe Biden, who had embraced the program and resettled over 100,000 refugees in the US last year.

◦Broader Trend of Reduced Quotas: The problem is not limited to just one country, as there are indications that a number of countries are reducing or adjusting their quotas.

◦Challenges and Goals: These national policy shifts present "towering hurdles" for UNHCR's resettlement efforts. Despite these challenges, the international community has set a goal of resettling 120,000 refugees in 2026, a figure that "recent history shows that this is achievable". For example, in the past year, UNHCR supported the resettlement of 116,000 refugees globally despite difficulties.

◦Urging Continued Support: UNHCR spokeswoman Shabia Mantoo stressed that resettlement "offers a concrete alternative to dangerous journeys" and urged countries to "sustain their programmes and increase their intake," emphasizing that "Every place is invaluable for those fleeing danger".

 

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