Is SAARC Being Replaced? China-Pakistan Move and South Asia’s Geopolitical Rebalancing

 Is SAARC Being Replaced? China-Pakistan Move and South Asia’s Geopolitical Rebalancing

By Team Suryavanshi IAS

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🧭 Context: The Regional Reconfiguration Debate

In a significant development, Pakistan and China are reportedly engaged in talks to create a new regional organisation that could replace the now-inactive SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation). The proposal is aimed at promoting regional integration, trade, and connectivity, especially in the context of SAARC's stagnation due to India-Pakistan tensions.

This move has strategic, economic, and diplomatic consequences that UPSC aspirants must analyze with balance, caution, and a deep understanding of the regional sensitivities involved.

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🌍 Understanding SAARC's Decline

·         SAARC, established in 1985, consists of: India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Maldives, and Afghanistan.

·         Aimed at fostering economic cooperation, regional peace, and cultural exchange.

·         However, progress has been stalled since 2014, primarily due to India-Pakistan hostilities.

·         The 2016 SAARC Summit in Islamabad was cancelled after the Uri terrorist attack and a diplomatic boycott by India, Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Afghanistan.

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🔍 What's the New Proposal?

🔸 Core Idea:

·         China and Pakistan aim to establish a new regional organisation, allegedly intended to replace SAARC.

·         Reported participants: China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, with possible inclusion of Sri Lanka, Maldives, Afghanistan — and an invitation to India.

🔸 Strategic Objective:

·         Enhance regional trade, infrastructure connectivity (likely under the Belt and Road Initiative - BRI), and diplomatic engagement.

·         Circumvent India's dominance in SAARC by promoting a more China-centric regional order.

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🎯 Strategic and Diplomatic Implications for India

✅ 1. Undermining SAARC Spirit

·         Any alternative bloc risks fragmenting South Asia, diluting the autonomous regional identity SAARC tried to promote.

·         Could signal the end of SAARC’s relevance, a platform India had significant influence in shaping.

✅ 2. Geostrategic Realignment

·         Reflects China's increasing ambition to shape South Asia’s geopolitics directly.

·         May lead to a parallel institutional architecture in South Asia — challenging India’s central role in the region.

✅ 3. Impact on India’s Neighbourhood First Policy

·         Signals China’s active courtship of India's neighbours — especially Bangladesh, Nepal, Maldives, and Sri Lanka — to create a pro-China tilt.

·         India’s diplomatic outreach and development assistance might need recalibration.

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🧭 Bangladesh’s Position: A Diplomatic Caution

·         Dhaka officially denied any alliance with China and Pakistan.

·         Called the Kunming meeting “non-political”, reiterating independence in foreign policy.

·         This shows South Asian countries are cautious of being seen as aligning with China at India’s expense.

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🔗 BIMSTEC as an Alternative?

·         Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) has emerged as a SAARC+ alternative, excluding Pakistan.

·         Members: India, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, and Thailand.

·         Promotes regional economic and technical cooperation, driven largely by India’s leadership.

🧠 UPSC GS-II Link: International Institutions and Regional Groupings

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🛡️ India’s Diplomatic Dilemma

Factor	Challenge	Response Needed
China-Pakistan Bloc	Undermines India’s regional leadership	Proactive diplomacy in neighbourhood
SAARC paralysis	Missed integration opportunity	Rejuvenate BIMSTEC and BBIN frameworks
Regional Perception	Risk of alienating smaller neighbours	Soft power, aid, development diplomacy
Strategic Isolation of Pakistan	Might backfire if China fills the gap	Balanced, consistent engagement

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📖 UPSC Mains Focus

🔸 GS Paper 2 – International Relations

Q. “The stagnation of SAARC and rise of China-led groupings reflect a shifting power balance in South Asia.” Critically examine with reference to India’s strategic interests. (250 words)

Approach Tip:

·         Explain SAARC’s decline

·         Describe the China-Pakistan proposal

·         Discuss implications for India

·         Suggest strategic course correction

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🌐 Ethical and Regional Sensitivity

·         India's diplomacy must blend strategic firmness with empathy for neighbours’ aspirations.

·         Avoid overt dominance; promote mutual benefit, cultural links, and sustainable development.

·         China’s cheque-book diplomacy must be countered with transparent, people-first initiatives.

🧠 UPSC GS-IV Ethics Link: “Respect for sovereignty, empathy in diplomacy, and ethical foreign relations.”

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🧩 Final Thoughts by Suryavanshi IAS

South Asia stands at a geopolitical crossroads. The China-Pakistan attempt to replace SAARC is not just a political move — it’s a test of India’s regional diplomacy, strategic depth, and leadership resilience.

For aspirants, this is a vital case to understand how:

·         Geopolitical vacuum invites external powers

·         Regional organisations reflect power equations

·         India must align its foreign policy with changing realities

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🖊️ Key Takeaway for UPSC Aspirants
In diplomacy, as in governance, leadership is not just about power — it’s about credibility, trust, and vision. Stay alert to shifts and always connect the dots.