Rising Global Military Spending and Its Domino Effects

By Suryavanshi IAS – For UPSC CSE Mains & Prelims 2025

🧭 Context: NATO’s 5% Defence Target & Remilitarisation Trends

At the NATO summit (June 2025), member countries pledged to increase defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, up from the earlier 2%. This commitment reflects a wider global trend of rising military expenditures, driven by escalating conflicts — notably Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Gaza, Israel-Iran, and even India-Pakistan.

🧠 UPSC Link (GS II & III): Issues related to international security, government budgeting, public health, and global governance institutions like the UN.

📈 Global Trends in Military Expenditure: Historical Perspective

According to SIPRI (2025):

🌍 Total global military spending (2024): $2.718 trillion
📊 Highest year-on-year growth (9.4%) since 1988
💣 Conflicts like Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Iran escalated spending further in 2025

Period	Global Military Spending (as % of World GDP)
Cold War (1960)	6.1%
End of Cold War (1991)	3.0%
Lowest (1998)	2.1%
2024	2.5%

🧠 Prelims Tip: SIPRI is the most trusted source on defence economics and global arms transfers.

💰 Who Are the Biggest Spenders?

Country	Military Budget (2024)	% of Global Spending
🇺🇸 United States	$997 billion	~37%
🇨🇳 China	$314 billion	~12%
🇷🇺 Russia	$149 billion	~5.5%
🇩🇪 Germany	$88.5 billion
🇮🇳 India	$86.1 billion

🧠 NATO’s 32 members collectively spent $1.5 trillion — about 55% of total global military spending.

🚨 Implications of Increased Military Spending

1. 📉 Crowding Out Public Welfare

“Guns vs Butter” Debate:
Increased defence spending often reduces budgetary allocation for social sectors like health, education, nutrition, especially in developing nations.

India Example:
- Defence budget: ₹6.81 lakh crore + ₹50,000 crore emergency purchase (Operation Sindoor)
- Ayushman Bharat (covers 58 crore Indians): ₹7,200 crore
- Public health spending remains at 1.84% of GDP, below the National Health Policy goal of 2.5%
Spain’s Example:
Refused to accept NATO’s 5% goal, citing it would slash welfare expenditure by €300 billion.

📌 UPSC GS III/Essay Tip:
Discuss the opportunity cost of military spending on human capital development and SDGs.

2. 🏥 Public Health Under Threat

A global study (Ikegami & Wang, 2023) found that:

Higher military spending = lower health spending (crowding-out effect)
Impact more severe in middle- and low-income countries

UN Funding Crisis:

UN budget: $44 billion (vs. $2.7 trillion global defence)
Received only $6 billion in 6 months → planned cut to $29 billion
USAID Closure by Trump = potential 14 million additional deaths by 2030, 1/3rd being children

📌 Ethics Case Study Idea:
UN vs National Military – balancing sovereignty and global responsibility

3. 🌱 Climate Change & Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

NATO 3.5% GDP defence spending → +200 million tonnes CO₂ emissions annually (Conflict & Environment Observatory)
Military operations = huge carbon footprint (fuel, manufacturing, explosives)
Funding diverted from SDG priorities like:
- Ending poverty: $70 billion/year
- Universal health: $325 billion/year
- NCD prevention: $1/person/year = save 7 million lives by 2030

🧠 Link to GS III: Environment, SDG-3 (Health), SDG-13 (Climate)

4. ⚖️ Strategic Miscalculations & Power Imbalance

NATO claims the 5% target is to counter Russia
But Russia's economy is 25x smaller than NATO’s; its defence budget is ~10x lower
Experts warn of fear-mongering, arms race, and exaggerated threats to justify militarisation
India-Pakistan tensions (2025) show how even regional rivalries can trigger unsustainable expenditure

📌 UPSC GS II Analysis:
Critically evaluate how militarisation as deterrence may backfire by escalating regional arms races and compromising peace-building mechanisms.

🇮🇳 How Is India Impacted?

India’s defence spending = 2.3% of GDP
Public health = 1.84% (below global avg.)
Education & environment also face similar underfunding
With increasing border tensions and domestic demand for national security, civilian welfare risks getting sidelined

🧠 Policy Recommendation:
India must pursue “Smart Security” — investing in cyber, climate, health, and human security alongside conventional defence.

🔍 Conclusion: Reimagining Security

Security is not just tanks and missiles — it’s also about vaccines, ventilators, clean air, literacy, jobs, and peaceful coexistence.

As UPSC aspirants and future policymakers, you must think beyond conventional paradigms:

“Peace is not the absence of war, but the presence of conditions that sustain life.”

📝 UPSC Mains Practice Question (GS II / GS III)

Q. The rising trend in global military expenditure is threatening the post-war gains in development and global peace. Examine its impact on public welfare spending, global governance institutions like the UN, and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Suggest a balanced strategy India can adopt.

📚 Prelims Capsule: Key Facts

SIPRI 2025 Global Military Spending: $2.718 trillion
Top Spender: USA – $997 billion
NATO Target: 5% of GDP on defence by 2035
India: 2.3% on defence, 1.84% on health
UN Budget (2025): $44 billion → likely cut to $29 billion
Ending global poverty = needs $70–325 billion/year

Stay informed. Think critically. Answer wisely.
– Suryavanshi IAS

Suryavanshi IAS

Tuesday, July 8, 2025