Strategic Realignments in South Asia: The U.S.-India-Pakistan Triangle

 Strategic Realignments in South Asia: The U.S.-India-Pakistan Triangle

By Suryavanshi IAS

In the ever-evolving theatre of South Asian geopolitics, the triangular relationship between the United States, India, and Pakistan continues to shape regional stability, diplomatic priorities, and global strategic calculations. This dynamic reflects not just the cold calculus of power, but also the enduring weight of historical legacies, ideological divergences, and shifting alliances.

Return of Realpolitik?

Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s symbolic engagement with Pakistan’s Army Chief, General Asim Munir, including high-level discussions and overt public praise, signals a reversion to Cold War-era realpolitik. This outreach, coupled with Trump’s unverified claims of brokering ceasefire deals between India and Pakistan, underlines a renewed American appetite for deal-based diplomacy over principle-based policy.

Such moves contrast sharply with the previous American alignment that treated India as a natural strategic partner in counterterrorism and China containment, following years of convergence post-2005. The transactionalism defining the Trump doctrine appears to prioritize tactical leverage — often at the cost of long-term trust.

Washington’s Policy Pivot

During his earlier presidency, Trump had taken a bold stance against Pakistan’s duplicity — its public cooperation in counterterrorism while simultaneously harbouring proxies. This candid approach had resonated strongly with India’s firm position against cross-border terrorism.

However, recent developments point to a policy reversal. The approval of $397 million in support to maintain Pakistan’s F-16 fleet under the guise of counterterrorism, and senior American military leaders calling Pakistan a “phenomenal partner,” indicate a clear recalibration. Trump’s remarks on Pakistan’s understanding of Iran further suggest a strategic intent to use Islamabad as a proxy stabilizer in the broader West Asian security matrix.

India’s Assertive Shift

The devastating April terror attack in Pahalgam became a turning point. India’s robust military retaliation through ‘Operation Sindoor’ signified a major doctrinal departure from strategic restraint. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s framing of a “new normal” underscores a broader intent to internationalize Pakistan’s accountability and disrupt its habitual hostility.

India’s rejection of third-party mediation in Kashmir remains unequivocal. Any perceived American attempt to “hyphenate” India with Pakistan in its South Asia strategy is likely to face strong pushback, especially as India envisions itself as a global power with independent strategic agency.

Pakistan’s Geopolitical Playbook

Pakistan, meanwhile, has revived its traditional playbook. The elevation of General Munir to Field Marshal — an extraordinary move — symbolizes Rawalpindi’s entrenched military control. This “hard state” doctrine, rooted in institutional militarism and civilian bypass, reinforces a posture of strength amidst economic and political turbulence.

Pakistan is also deploying its geostrategic location as a bargaining chip. From rare earth trade deals to expanded engagement on Afghanistan and Iran, Islamabad is attempting to reassert its indispensability to Washington. This charm offensive, though clever, reflects a deeper awareness of its limitations in raw power — substituted instead with geographic leverage and personal diplomacy.

An Ambivalent Washington

The U.S. currently exhibits deliberate ambivalence. While the Indo-Pacific remains a strategic theatre — evidenced by the July 1 Quad Foreign Ministers’ meeting in Washington — there is growing concern in New Delhi that transactional goals, tariffs, and short-term interests are overtaking Washington’s broader democratic and strategic commitments in the region.

This inconsistency risks undermining hard-earned trust with India, which has consistently positioned itself as a responsible stakeholder in the liberal international order.

Conclusion: A Tightrope of Strategic Choices

The triangular relationship between the U.S., India, and Pakistan today reflects a delicate balance between idealism and pragmatism. For the U.S., it is a test of whether strategic foresight can prevail over short-term gains. For India, it is a moment of diplomatic and military assertion. For Pakistan, it is an opportunity to revive global relevance amidst internal crisis.

Ultimately, American diplomacy must tread carefully. Any misstep that appears to equate a rising democratic power with a state seen to shelter terrorism and militarism will not only alienate New Delhi, but also dilute the credibility of U.S. leadership in South Asia and beyond.