India's Geopolitical Tightrope: Rebalancing Strategy in a Fragmenting World Order
— A Detailed UPSC-Oriented Blog by Suryavanshi IAS
📘 Relevance to UPSC Syllabus
GS Paper 2: International Relations
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India and its Neighbourhood
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Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings
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Effect of Policies of Developed Countries on India’s Interests
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India’s Strategic Autonomy
GS Paper 3: Economic Development & Internal Security
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Effects of Globalization on Indian Economy
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Challenges to Internal Security
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Role of External State and Non-state Actors
🔍 Context: India's Strategic Crossroads
As the global order is resetting, India's role is under sharp focus. Operation Sindoor, the fallout of the Pahalgam attack (April 2025), U.S. tariffs, and China's tightening grip in South Asia underscore a turning point.
Core Message:
To shape its future as an economic and technological powerhouse, India must first secure its geopolitical space.
🇮🇳 Operation Sindoor: A Reality Check
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India retaliated militarily after the April 22 terrorist attack in Pahalgam.
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Terrorists were traced back to Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba.
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However, global support was muted — even India’s partners avoided directly naming Pakistan.
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U.S. President Donald Trump claimed credit for ceasefire efforts using trade pressure — a claim denied by India.
🧠 Key UPSC Concept: International legitimacy and information warfare as strategic tools.
🤝 Strained Ties with the United States
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On the day of the India-U.S. NISAR satellite launch, the U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on Indian goods.
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Trump linked it to India’s oil imports from Russia, ignoring U.S. imports of Russian uranium and chemicals.
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TRF, the terror group claiming the Pahalgam attack, was later designated as an FTO and SDGT by the U.S.
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Yet, growing U.S.-Pakistan bonhomie and its support to anti-India stances in Bangladesh and Myanmar raise concerns.
📌 India’s balancing act between strategic autonomy and alliance politics is under pressure.
🌍 EU & Indo-Pacific Dynamics
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EU sanctioned India’s Vadinar Refinery (with Russian ties) despite its own continued oil imports from Russia.
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The India-EU FTA negotiations are being stalled by digital, carbon and regulatory hurdles.
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Quad alliance's effectiveness is being questioned due to Trump's inward-looking policies.
🧭 India's economic growth and energy security are now entangled with global power politics.
🐉 China’s Regional Push
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China is trying to isolate India by initiating Bangladesh-Pakistan-China trilateral talks.
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It is helping revive the Lalmonirhat WWII airbase in Bangladesh, near the Siliguri Corridor.
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China is weaponizing:
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Rare earths
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Fertilizers
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APIs (Pharmaceutical ingredients)
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Construction equipment
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Beijing's dam on Brahmaputra (Yarlung Zangbo) poses a water security threat.
⚠️ China's strategic encirclement is both geographic and economic.
🇮🇳 India's Response: Multi-Alignment & Assertiveness
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India has prioritized relations with East Asia and hosted PM Modi’s visit to Maldives to counterbalance China.
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It is warming up to BRICS, SCO, and pushing for an India-U.S. trade deal.
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India abstained on Ukraine, but now is more vocal on Gaza — signaling strategic assertiveness.
🧠 UPSC Perspective: Lessons from Operation Sindoor
What India must learn:
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Global sympathy is not automatic; geopolitical engagement must be reciprocal.
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India cannot remain neutral or aloof in global conflicts if it expects support for its own.
Shifting Template:
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Traditional reliance on non-alignment is being replaced by multi-alignment with strategic interests first.
🗃️ UPSC Mains PYQs You Should Reflect On:
| Year | Question |
|---|---|
| 2022 | Critically examine the role of India in maintaining strategic autonomy in the changing world order. |
| 2021 | How does India’s neighbourhood policy impact its global ambitions? |
| 2019 | Assess the role of regional groupings like BRICS and SCO in shaping India’s foreign policy. |
| 2018 | India’s economic development depends on its foreign policy choices. Discuss. |
✍️ Mains Answer Framework (GS-2)
Q. “India’s growing global stature requires it to move beyond silence in global conflicts.” Discuss with reference to recent geopolitical developments.
Body:
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Recent events: Operation Sindoor, Trump tariffs, EU sanctions
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India’s silence on global conflicts (Gaza, Ukraine, Iran-Israel)
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Importance of strategic alignment
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Risk of marginalization if India remains neutral
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Multi-alignment as a sustainable model
✅ Final Word: Why Geopolitics Now Matters More Than Ever
In a world where sanctions, supply chains, and tariffs are weapons, India must play both the economic and diplomatic game smartly. Operation Sindoor was a turning point — showing India that assertive geopolitics is not a choice, but a necessity.
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