Doomsday Predictions, AI, and Declining Militancy in India

By Suryavanshi IAS

Introduction

Across history, making predictions has been a dangerous pursuit. Political leaders, strategists, and even scholars often risk being proven wrong. Yet, in the age of Artificial Intelligence (AI), predictions about security and terrorism are becoming even more hazardous. Globally, terrorism has shown resilience, mutating into new forms, whereas India, in contrast, is witnessing a declining curve of ideologically-oriented militancy, particularly Naxalism.

For UPSC aspirants, understanding this contrast is essential: while the world warns of AI-enabled bioterrorism, misaligned AI, and global jihadist campaigns, India seems to be closing a chapter on its own long-standing domestic ideological movement.

The Global Scenario: AI and Terrorism

Post 9/11 world: Terrorism did not vanish; instead, copycat attacks and lone-wolf strikes multiplied.
Rise of IS-inspired attacks: Vehicle rammings in Europe and the U.S. (e.g., New Orleans, 2025) are recent reminders.
AI-enabled threats: Doomsday predictions suggest AI could:
- Enable terrorists to access bioweapons.
- Escape human control, creating existential risks.
Implication for UPSC: Security is no longer limited to conventional warfare; it merges with cyber, biotech, and AI domains.

The Indian Scenario: Declining Naxalism

While global terror threats intensify, India shows a contrasting decline in Naxalite violence.

Union Home Minister’s statement (2024): End of Naxalism by mid-2026.
Why significant? Earlier, many “false dawns” (1970s, 1990s) misled observers, but no official claim of elimination had ever been made.
Campaign against Naxalites (2024 onwards):
- Sustained security offensives across Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh.
- CPI (Maoist) admitted 357 cadres killed in 2024, one-third being women cadres.
Epicentre of violence: Dandakaranya region (Bastar, Gadchiroli, adjoining forest belts).
Decline factors:
- Internal leadership crisis post-2018 (Ganapathi’s removal).
- Shrinking territory and influence.
- Loss of ideological sheen — degeneration into violence for survival.

From ‘Spring Thunder’ to Fading Storm

1960s-70s: Inspired by global revolutionary icons (Mao, Ho Chi Minh, Che Guevara).
Slogans: “China’s Chairman is our Chairman.”
Initial zeal: Promised empowerment of tribals, poor, and oppressed.
Reality: Degeneration into fragmented, region-based militant violence.
Urban Naxals (today): Unlike earlier ideological Maoists, today’s “urban naxals” represent loose-knit critics of government policies — not comparable to original revolutionaries.

Lessons for Policy and UPSC

Global vs Indian Terrorism: While the world braces for AI-driven jihadi threats, India is curbing homegrown ideological insurgency.
Wrong classifications (e.g., urban naxals): May distort policy and create blind spots.
Checks and balances in India: Unlike U.S. “war on terror,” India historically used calibrated force due to Naxalites’ proximity with local populations.

UPSC Relevance

This theme connects with GS Paper III (Internal Security) and Essay Paper. Aspirants must be able to:

Compare global terrorism with domestic militancy.
Assess technological threats (AI, bioweapons).
Evaluate government policy responses.

Previous Year UPSC Questions for Practice

GS Paper II / III (Internal Security & International Relations)

Discuss the emerging threats to internal security caused by misusing cyberspace and Artificial Intelligence. How should India prepare to face them? (UPSC Mains 2021, modified)
Left Wing Extremism (LWE) is showing a declining trend in India. Examine the causes for this decline and suggest measures to consolidate the gains. (UPSC Mains 2020, GS III)
The cross-border movement of insurgents is only one of the several security challenges facing the policing of the border in North-East India. Examine the various challenges currently emanating across India’s international borders. (UPSC Mains 2020, GS III)
What are the determinants of left-wing extremism in Eastern and Central India? What strategy should the government adopt to curb the menace of Naxalism? (UPSC Mains 2013, GS III)
Terrorism is emerging as a competitive industry over the last few decades. Analyse the steps necessary to fight the menace. (UPSC Mains 2016, GS III)

Practice MCQs (Prelims-Oriented)

Consider the following regions:
1. Bastar
2. Gadchiroli
3. Dandakaranya
  Which of the above are considered epicentres of Left Wing Extremism in India?
- (a) 1 and 2 only
- (b) 2 and 3 only
- (c) 1, 2 and 3
- (d) 1 only
Which of the following best explains the term “lone wolf attack”?
- (a) A coordinated terrorist strike by multiple sleeper cells.
- (b) A terrorist act carried out by an individual inspired by extremist ideology but acting alone.
- (c) An attack executed by a terrorist group using only non-lethal weapons.
- (d) A cyber-attack targeting financial institutions.
The term ‘Spring Thunder’ in Indian history is associated with:
- (a) Green Revolution in the 1960s.
- (b) Naxalite Movement in the 1960s.
- (c) Student protests in Bihar during the 1970s.
- (d) Workers’ strikes in Bombay textile mills.

Conclusion

The global scenario warns of AI-enabled terrorism and new forms of violence, while India’s trajectory points towards the possible end of Naxalism by mid-2026. For UPSC aspirants, this contrast offers valuable insights into the evolving nature of internal security threats. A nuanced understanding — avoiding wrong classifications and learning from history — is crucial for both policymakers and future administrators.

Suryavanshi IAS

Saturday, August 16, 2025